The Tamesis
It’s that time again: brands are gearing up for their 2026 European summer campaigns. But ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes, are exacerbating a brewing aviation crisis as fashion brands sign deals with European beach clubs to make money on jets.
Insufficient aviation fuel supplies have led to higher costs, resulting in higher ticket prices, reduced airline capacity and, in some cases, outright flight cancellations. The fuel crisis is worsening as summer travel bookings rise, with few signs of a return to normal ahead of the peak season. As of the end of March, flight bookings from the United States to Europe were down 11.2% year-on-year, according to aviation analytics platform Cirium. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said on the company’s earnings call last week that ticket prices could rise 15% to 20% in the coming months.
Analysts agree that everything is up in the air right now, making it difficult to determine the actual impact. “It’s unclear how tourist inflows and spending will ultimately play out in Europe, given disruptions to air flights and low capacity in key Middle Eastern hubs,” said Luca Solca, luxury goods analyst at Bernstein. “With or without a deal between the U.S. and Iran, the outlook will be very different. Without a deal, we will continue to face headwinds. [Europe’s] Entry [tourism flows]” The uncertainty has been a blow to the luxury goods industry, which saw a drop in luxury spending by both U.S. and Chinese tourists last summer.
In 2025, analysts are optimistic that Chinese tourists will return in the summer of 2026 as the economy recovers. That recovery is now underway, but some are skeptical about how many Chinese tourists will make summer trips abroad amid the disruption. Galeries Lafayette Chief Executive Arthur Lemoine blamed the company’s flat sales last quarter in part on the crisis in the Middle East, as some Asian travelers passed through the region on their way to Europe (and long-haul flights are more expensive than usual because of the cost of jet fuel). Still, Asian airlines including Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines and Korean Air have reported strong demand for their European routes this summer as Asian travelers with the means seek European routes rather than Middle Eastern airport hubs. Additionally, Chinese airlines are expected to increase flights to Europe this summer, as their access to Russian airspace (and subsequent ability to bypass the Middle East) makes them attractive.
Despite rising prices, luxury goods are better able to withstand the impact than most products. Neil Saunders, managing director of retail at intelligence firm Globaldata, said: “The reason higher-income consumers are more protected is because they have more flexibility. They can deal with any price increases and have more options to change flights and find alternatives.” Suzy Davidkhanian, Emarketer’s vice president of content in charge of the company’s retail business, said if these consumers have serious concerns about their safety, it will actually lead to less travel. “There may be some disruption for higher-income households with lots of disposable cash – they may think twice, they may book closer to their flight times rather than pay in advance – but the summer is locked and loaded, unless the war escalates in ways we cannot fathom.”
Experts agree that the next tier of middle- and upper-income consumers are more likely to feel the impact and change their spending accordingly. While this consumer group may still book a summer vacation in Europe, they are less likely to splurge on material goods once they arrive at their destination. They may also go back to the drawing board, David Kanian said. “Maybe they’ll stay less, or they’ll go to one city instead of three,” she explained. If they have to spend more money up front to get to their destination, they’re likely to shop less once they get there.
