Is it or is it not the economy?

Kuala Lumpur – That’s the economy, stupid.

The phrase has echoed in political discourse for decades, ever since campaign strategist James Carville scrawled it on a whiteboard at former US President Bill Clinton’s political headquarters in 1992. It’s part of three core messages aimed at keeping the burgeoning movement disciplined: “Change comes with more of the same,” “Economy, stupid” and “Don’t forget health care.”

It was not originally intended for public consumption, but became the defining slogan of the 1992 U.S. presidential election. By focusing on the recession and the stagnation of the American middle class, Carville defied the perception that George H.W. Bush — a sitting president with a rich foreign policy record — was the obvious choice. The lesson is simple: When voters are anxious about their livelihoods, the broader geopolitical narrative disappears.

I have been thinking about this slogan recently after speaking with two political analysts about the upcoming 16th general election (GE16), which, according to speculation, may be held this year. This is a topic of intense interest, especially given that the House of Commons will automatically dissolve on 19 December 2027.

One analyst remains firmly in the “economy first” camp. He is confident that Madani’s government will perform strongly, noting that Malaysia’s macroeconomic performance is “the best”. He believes that under the leadership of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, the ringgit is performing well and is trading at around RM3.99 against the US dollar.

He believes that Malaysia is successfully transitioning to high-income country status. He praised the Madani government for restoring dignity and revenue to the country. His views include:

> Corruption Perception Index: Malaysia’s ranking improved to 54th from 57th in 2024, with its score improving 2 points to 52, reflecting effective structural reforms to curb high-profile corruption.

> Revenue recovery: RM15.5 billion was recovered through enforcement by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission, Inland Revenue Department, Police and Customs Department.

> Economic strategy: The government aims to make Malaysia a high-income country by 2027-2028, with institutional reform and clean governance as the main pillars.

> GNI target: Gross national income per capita currently stands at US$11,800 to US$12,000 (RM46,500 to RM47,300), close to the World Bank’s high-income threshold of US$13,935 (RM54,900).

> Industry transformation: The transformation into high-value industries such as semiconductors and the digital economy is supported by a transparent and corruption-free ecosystem.

However, a second analyst offered a thought-provoking rebuttal. He argued that politics is rarely rational; It’s emotional. He believes that regardless of macroeconomic indicators, most B40 and M40 (low- and middle-income) households do not feel that their daily lives have changed under the Madani government. He said the main emotion among those who voted for Pakatan Harapan in the 2022 15th general election was anger.

The DAP extraordinary conference on July 12 is a critical moment for the alliance. For the party’s grassroots, this is not just a procedural meeting; it is a referendum on their participation in government.

The Action Party was divided. Some believe that remaining in the coalition is the only way to influence policy from within. However, a growing faction believes that the party’s reformist credentials are being eroded by silent complicity. If the national convention votes to distance the party from the current government, the government’s fundamental stability will effectively be undermined.

Voter frustration is not limited to specific figures, such as Anti-Corruption Commission chief Tan Sri Azam Baki, whose shareholding controversy remains a flashpoint. There is a palpable sense of “reform fatigue” as “reformati” (a clever play on words suggesting the death of reform, or mati) appears more and more. Supporters of years of efforts to deepen institutional reform now believe the government is prioritizing political survival over structural change.

Voters, especially those who support the DAP, are increasingly dissatisfied with the slow pace of legislative reforms and dangerous inconsistencies in the government’s handling of past political opponents, which they say is far from the “clean government” promise that propelled Pakatan Harapan to power.

The analyst also highlighted the backlash surrounding the RM1.1 billion ARM Holdings deal and the investigation into former PKR deputy chairman and ex-economic minister Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli. The Pandan MP claimed the MACC investigation was a politically motivated retaliation and was launched after he publicly criticized the MACC chief.

Rafizi remained defiant, claiming that the ARM deal had received multiple cabinet-level approvals.

A second analyst also warned that the alliance was at risk of collapse. He pointed out that Upko left in November 2025, leaving Pakatan Harapan with only its original three parties: PKR, DAP and Amanah.

Rafizi and at least nine MPs from Klang Valley City constituencies such as Ampang, Kelana Jaya, Pandan, Petaling Jaya, Setia Wangsa and Wangsa Maju are at odds with PKR president Anwar. The analyst warned that PKR, which won 31 seats in the 15th general election, could see its support fall to single digits in the 16th general election.

“If DAP acts alone and PKR’s parliamentary seats are reduced, will PKR have the ability to lead a coalition government?” he asked.

Contrary to the slogan of Clinton’s success, the slogan of the 16th election might be: It’s not the economy, stupid.

Is the post economical or not? appeared first on Asia News Network.