The Tamesis
January 15, 2026
Beijing – Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will pay a four-day visit to China starting on Wednesday, the first visit by a Canadian prime minister in eight years. The visit was widely seen as a clear signal for Ottawa to adjust its China policy. In the context of drastic changes in global geopolitics and increasing uncertainty in the world economy, this visit is not only related to relations between the two countries, but also reflects Canada’s specific efforts to pursue strategic independence.
In recent years, China-Canada relations have experienced fluctuations. Ottawa’s illegal detention of senior Chinese official Meng Wanzhou in 2018 led to the rapid deterioration of relations between the two countries, damaged political mutual trust, disrupted high-level dialogue, and hindered economic and trade cooperation. In addition, Canada has followed some Western countries in interfering in China’s internal affairs and even imposed punitive tariffs on Chinese products, including a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.
These initiatives did not produce the results Ottawa wanted. Instead, they have caused tremendous economic pain to Canadian agriculture and other sectors. China is an important market for Canadian canola products and imposes 100% tariffs on Canadian canola oil and other agricultural products. Meanwhile, competitors such as Australia have steadily expanded canola exports to China, at the expense of Canada.
A major factor prompting Ottawa to reconsider its relationship with Beijing is changes in the external environment. The United States under President Donald Trump has intensified its “America First” policy, imposing sweeping tariffs on allies including Canada. The Trump administration has even stated that Canada should become “the 51st state of the United States.”
This unpredictability of traditional allies has made Ottawa aware of the dangers of overreliance on a single partner. Canada is “forging new partnerships around the world to transform our economy from one dependent on a single trading partner to one that is stronger and more resilient to global shocks,” according to a press release from the Prime Minister’s Office.
Trade data also underscore the need for a policy shift in Canada. In 2024, the volume of goods trade between Canada and China will reach 117.4 billion Canadian dollars (84.6 billion U.S. dollars), and China will continue to be Canada’s second largest trading partner. Although the trade deficit with China will be approximately CAD 57.8 billion in 2024, the importance of the Chinese market to Canada’s resource-based economy is undeniable, especially as Canada promotes export diversification and reduces dependence on the United States.
Ottawa said Carney’s visit is expected to focus on topics such as trade and energy. These are areas in which the two countries have significant common interests. Canada’s high-quality wheat, peas, beef and seafood are in high demand among China’s middle class. Through better harmonization of food standards and supply chain transparency, Canadian agricultural products can expand their share of the Chinese market.
Energy cooperation between the two countries is of strategic significance. Canada has the world’s fourth-largest natural gas reserves, and China is stepping up efforts to optimize its energy mix and reduce its reliance on coal. Canada’s strengths in carbon capture and hydrogen technologies align well with China’s vast market for these technologies and decarbonization goals.
Of course, economics and trade alone cannot thaw relations between the two countries. Rebuilding political trust is equally important. In recent years, Canada has made inappropriate remarks on issues involving China’s core interests, damaging China’s mutual trust. Ottawa needs to show clearer strategic determination and make independent judgments and rational statements based on facts and international law.
Last October, the leaders of China and Canada met on the sidelines of the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, which was exciting. The two sides reached important understandings on improving China-Canada relations. Last year, the foreign ministers and senior officials of both sides held a series of exchanges, creating a more favorable atmosphere for Carney’s visit to China.
But one visit cannot solve all problems in bilateral relations. Canada still needs to transcend the “values alliance” thinking, abandon ideological bias, view China’s development objectively, and avoid sacrificing the long-term common interests of both parties in order to meet short-term political needs. China is willing to cooperate with all countries, including Canada, to cope with the complex external environment and the profound changes taking place in the world.
Carney’s visit may not immediately reverse the problems accumulated over the years, but it sends a positive signal: dialogue is better than confrontation, and cooperation is better than decoupling. If both sides pragmatically advance specific projects and patiently resolve issues caused by past frictions, it is entirely possible for bilateral relations to get back on track.
(The author is a researcher at the Canadian Research Center of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies)
These views do not necessarily reflect the views of China Daily.
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