The Tamesis
December 2, 2024
Kuala Lumpur – It’s been two years since Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was appointed as Malaysia’s 10th Prime Minister.
If we go back to before November 2022, not many people would think that the Pakatan Harapan chairman and PKR chairman can be the prime minister. Despite the odds, the politician who was just one step away from becoming prime minister when he was deputy prime minister and deputy chairman of Umno in the 1990s finally succeeded.
Anwar was jailed twice after falling out with then-prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who sacked him from his posts as deputy prime minister and Umno deputy president, the second most important position in Malaysian politics (until 2018).
But Anwar, 75, made history after the 15th general election (GE15) in 2022 and was appointed prime minister.
This was one of the major reversals in Malaysian political history.
Another big reversal is of course Dr Mahathir's second term as Prime Minister.
In his first months as prime minister, Anwar's coalition government was seen as shaky.
The National Alliance has 74 MPs from PAS and Bersatu and is a powerful opposition front against Anwar's coalition government. The coalition government group includes Pakatan Harapan (81 MPs), National Front (30 MPs), Partisan Sarawak (or GPS, 23 MPs), Sabah People's Alliance (6), Warisan (3 ), Independence Party (2 people), Warisan (3 people), Sarawak Parties Alliance (GPS, 23 people).
Many people looked at the numbers and calculated that the Madani government (some called it a coalition government) had the support of two-thirds of parliamentarians. But if they focus on the numbers that separate PH (81 MPs) and PN (74 MPs), then only 7 MPs separate the two alliances.
Last year, there was constant speculation about whether Perikatan Nasional could get enough MPs from the National Front, Partisan Sarawak, GRS and minor parties to overthrow the Madani government.
An important date for achieving this goal is after the results of the six state elections on August 12, 2023. Well this could be a game changer, especially if the opposition alliance wins the Negeri Sembilan, Penang or Selangor state governments. This will show that the people, especially the Malays, support the opposition.
However, this is the status quo. The alliance retains its strongholds in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, while PH retains Penang, Negeri Sembilan and Selangor.
Since then, the Coalition has lost faith that it can overthrow the Madani government. The results of several by-elections maintained the status quo, with Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional retaining their seats.
Subsequently, the 2024 Nengiri by-election was held on August 17. It is undoubtedly a morale booster for Umno to regain the traditional seats it lost in the 2023 state elections.
The Nejiri by-election was triggered when the Kelantan state assembly declared the seat vacant. Mohd Azizi Abu Naim, a Bersatu politician and Gua Musang MP, presided over the ceremony.
The Gua Musang MP and five other Bersatu MPs known as the rogue Bersatu Six have declared their support for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
Parliament Speaker Tan Sri Johari Abdullah later ruled that MPs from Jelly, Gua Musang, Bukit Kantang, Kuala Kangsar, Tanjong Karong and Labuan could remain despite the anti-job-hopping law seats. They are now pro-Anwar independent MPs. As they left or were expelled from Bersatu, Perikatan Nasional's 74 MP seats were reduced to 68.
There was less and less talk about the PN government's battle with Anwar for the federal government, until not many people were talking about it.
Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi did speak of new attempts. On November 24, the Deputy Prime Minister claimed that opposition members of Congress approached him and hoped to lead the National Front to withdraw from the federal government and form a new political alliance.
However, Bersatu acting president Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin clarified that the Perikatan Nasional MP who met Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is an old friend of the Umno president and did not have any mandate from the opposition alliance to negotiate with Anwar The collapse of the government.
If Ahmad Zahid had not raised the matter, there wouldn't have been much talk about whether Perikatan Nasional might have done the same to Mahathir's government. In 2020, a faction of Bersatu (excluding Mahathir's team), PAS, Umno and PKR united to overthrow the Pakatan Harapan government.
On the second anniversary of the Madani government, it is not Anwar's coalition government that is strong; it is Anwar's unity government that is strong. But the opposition is weak. There is internal strife in Bersatu, with leaders more focused on killing each other than taking over the federal government.
Political discussions no longer mention PN as a major factor in the change of government. The one I heard growing louder was the Borneo Group. Tensions between Prime Minister Anwar and Sarawak (the Sarawak Parties Alliance-led government, which has 23 seats) and Sabah (the Sarawak Alliance-led government, which has six MP seats) are manageable.
The two territories in Borneo are claiming rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63). However, on the issue of funding, Sabahans and Sarawakians believe Anwar's government is resisting.
If united, the Borneo Group will be powerful. The Prime Minister must handle this matter carefully. Is this consistent with his political DNA?
