The Tamesis
Jing County, China – An empty classroom in a junior high school.
Eve Dean/Getty Images
The 2025 demographic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China show that the number of births last year was 7.92 million, a 17% decrease from 9.54 million in 2024. This is the lowest number of births since records began in 1949. Nearly 8 million births is even lower than my data Forecast 18 months ago 8.5 million.
If this trend continues, China’s population is expected to shrink by 50% in a lifetime. But China hawks should be careful: This trend could weaken or even reverse. Even a significant decline would not affect China’s decades of economic growth or military capabilities. Improvements in automation and human capital will more than offset digital losses in the coming period.
Still, the decline is bad news for China’s leadership. If starting a family is the ultimate expression of confidence in the system and confidence in the future, this data points to a worrying decline in both. The headline bad news is that the number is less than 8 million. The real bad news: China’s system won’t solve this problem easily. Things will get worse.
There are several reasons for this pessimism. Most importantly, China’s governance system is not designed for innovation, experimentation, or public discussion of bad news. It is designed to achieve consistency, internal cohesion and minimize embarrassment. The lack of policy response is not surprising.
First, the government provided only modest subsidies, approx. $1,500 per year In some areas, for newborns. Policymakers should consider $1,500 per month or more.
Second, governments can cherry-pick favorable statistics. this South China Morning Post involving“….In the first three quarters of 2025, China’s marriage registration volume increased by 8.5% year-on-year. Analysts said that a series of policies to support marriage are beginning to bear fruit.This is encouraging for China, but the number of marriages will still be below 7 million by 2025, and if this trend continues, the number of births per year will be difficult to exceed 8 million.
Third, the question is designed to be shelved. Demographic data are released annually, and any serious initiative can take years to show results. If you were a health ministry official three years away from retirement, what advice might you make? The safest answer is to raise the subsidy slightly and give more presentations. The system is designed for complacency, not urgency.
Another complicating factor is social issues. After decades of population control, Chinese citizens have become accustomed to having only one child, or no children at all. The Communist Party created the most prosperous middle class in Chinese history, and now even being an only child can mean a significant decline in quality of life.
Is there a psychological dimension as well? Starting a family requires confidence in the future, and that confidence appears to be waning. Does society lack anything? Something intangible but important? Most advanced industrial countries face roughly the same demographic challenges as China, although the problem appears to be more severe in China.
