The Tamesis
February 6, 2026
Dhaka – Three things are unique about the upcoming national elections: the revival of the Jamaat-e-Islami, the rise of Tariq Rahman as a central figure in today’s politics, and something unthinkable before August 2024 – the marginalization of the Awami League in this election.
The presence of the Congress party in the country’s politics has been a hotly debated issue ever since it fought against the birth of Bangladesh in the liberation war, aided the Pakistani army in committing genocide and Badr and Shams killed our intellectuals. The fact that it has never apologized for its role and never sought forgiveness from the people of Bangladesh still makes it nearly impossible to accept. Its latest stance, as expressed by its chief Dr Shafiqur Rahman, is that “if we have made any mistakes from 1947 (the year of Pakistan’s birth, against the Jamaat led by its founder Abu Allah Modudi) to date, we will apologize for it.” The party’s refusal to mention the events of 1971 or apologize for opposing our independence struggle and opposing ordinary and freedom-loving people remains the most tragic.
However, despite its past history, today’s federation plays an important role in the upcoming elections. Opinion polls show the party is likely to become the second largest party in the next parliament. How did it overcome such a shameful legacy and emerge with such power?
The most important reason is that it taps into the growing sense of Muslim identity among most Bangladeshis, and Jamaat positions itself as the truest representative of this sense. The total failure of the two centrist parties – notably the Awami League (AL) and to some extent the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) – to create a deep and lasting nationalist and secular political impact in the minds of the electorate has created space for the resurgence of the Congress. The two parties have been in power together since 1991, but their performance has alienated the public from them. The corrupt, exploitative and oppressive role played by the Awami League during its more than 15-year rule ending in August 2024 – a party whose legitimacy and appeal is centered on its role in 1971 – has significantly opened further space for the Congress to strengthen its position in our politics.
The Congress’s ideological consistency in its use of religion, its organizational capabilities, and the dedication of its rank-and-file workers have contributed greatly to its current strength. Student activists have infiltrated the Chhatra League over the years and in some cases assumed second-tier leadership roles, demonstrating the effectiveness of the party’s long-term planning and organizational capabilities. Shibir (the student wing of Jamaat) proved how successful their efforts were by winning the recent student union elections in five public universities. It is also reported that grassroots female members of the Solidarity Association have been quite active and effective in door-to-door campaigning for the party.
The National Civic Party (NCP), the Congress’ electoral ally, also deserves mention in this regard. As a party that emerged from the July uprising, the NCP entered electoral politics with great expectations, but then found itself aligned with the Congress-led bloc in a decision that could have significant consequences for the party’s immediate and long-term future.
The second unique feature of this election is the rise of Tariq Rahman. He was the heir apparent from the start, but his rise was astonishing. The way he kept the party running for so many years in London while his mother was imprisoned speaks volumes about his ability to use modern communications facilities to keep the party motivated and, more importantly, disciplined. He is known for connecting with local leadership through mobile and internet, something young BNP activists at district and upazila levels consider a matter of pride. The alliance’s repeated attempts to split the party or lure some key leaders away were thwarted by Tariq Rahman’s direct communication and persuasive abilities. Fifteen years is a long time in the politics of any country, especially Bangladesh, and the fact that the BNP remains largely intact (despite ruthless suppression by the AL government) is a testament to his organizational skills.
Many believe that he took too long to return to Bangladesh after the collapse of the Awami League government and that had he arrived earlier, the BNP would have been significantly strengthened. Although he arrived late, his return energized the party, galvanized workers and brought a new confidence that had previously been absent. The enthusiastic public reception and the overall support shown by the large rallies at all his public appearances have made him a central factor in Bangladesh’s current electoral politics. So far he has behaved with dignity and maturity. His speech was restrained and future-oriented. His detailed description of what he plans to do if elected stands in sharp contrast to the rhetoric of others. Whether he can organize the party well enough to run an effective campaign will be known after the polls. But so far he has succeeded in taking his late mother’s place, and her janaza is the most visible evidence of the love and respect she enjoyed and the sympathy he is likely to inherit.
The third feature of the upcoming elections is to prevent the Awami League from participating in the elections. The party was not banned, but its activities were. How could a party that played such an important role in the birth of Bangladesh and has been a part of Bangladesh for the past 55 years become so fragile that it is marginalized in such a crucial political event as an election?
The Awami League’s current collapse has many factors, including extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances, but is largely attributed to the brutal killings on the streets of Dhaka and other parts of the country during the last six weeks of its rule. One thing is enough to explain everything. How could a young college student like Abu Said, completely unarmed, standing alone on the street away from other protesters and posing any threat to anyone, let alone the police at a distance, be shot? Sheikh Hasina and her government lost everything – people, credibility and acceptability – and exposed the mentality of an evil oppressor. This is further proven by the fact that instead of expressing regret and taking action against the perpetrators, the government falsified the autopsy reports more than once and tried to justify its actions. Demonstrators were killed in the following weeks, setting the stage for a ban on the League’s activities.
Which political party AL voters will lean toward on February 12 may have a decisive impact on the poll results.
Of course, this election had an additional feature: the eclipse of the National Party, which had dominated politics under General Ershad until 1990 and had finished third in all elections since then.
Elections have always been at the heart of a country’s democratic process. But this year’s polls are even more important as Bangladesh urgently needs to restart its journey towards stability, predictability, an end to mob rule, much-needed investment and public safety and security. All of this is expected to start with the establishment of democratically elected parliaments, accountable government, competent policymakers and a clear vision for the way forward.
Finally, we draw a warning from history: While we are enthusiastic about elections, we are deeply unwilling to accept the results when we lose. Losers fall into two categories: individuals who failed to win, and parties that failed to win enough parliamentary seats to form the next government. This last category often questions polls and destabilizes transitions. We have seen this in all past elections, even under the caretaker system. As we summarized the trend in our last post, elections are only free and fair if we win, but if we lose, they are rigged! This tendency is something we must get rid of. It is our fervent hope and sincere expectation that the outcome will be received with grace and dignity. If there is a basis for a fact-based challenge, proceed in accordance with the rules established by the Election Commission. Don’t create unnecessary confusion and disruption. The country needs to move forward urgently and peacefully.
This was a free, fair and peaceful election.
