The Tamesis
June 4, 2026
Johor Bahru – The upcoming state election will be a crowded one, with multi-corner fights expected in many constituencies, but analysts believe the contest will ultimately boil down to a battle between Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan.
Political analyst Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali observed that with new political groups such as Gerakan Reset Party and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia joining the race, there will be larger groups joining the electoral race.
“Even if the election is crowded, it still looks like a showdown between Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan. It remains to be seen how influential the new parties will be,” said Mazlan of Universiti Teknologi Kuala Lumpur.
He said even Perikatan Nasional, which has announced it will contest all 56 seats in Johor, is weakened by disagreements over possible cooperation between PAS and Bersatu in the election.
“We may even see PAS and Bersatu field candidates against each other in certain seats, making the election more crowded.”
Mazlan also said he believed new political parties such as Bersatu, led by former PKR MPs Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazminik Ahmed, were unlikely to have a significant impact due to their limited grassroots influence.
“They may appeal to the middle class and educated centrists, but voters generally focus on a party’s record, leadership stability, ability to improve the economy and concern for people’s welfare.”
Meanwhile, associate professor Dr Akbar Abdullah, a political analyst at Universiti Malaysia Tun Hussein Onn, said voter turnout could play a decisive role and a lower turnout could benefit the Barisan Nasional.
“If the turnout is about 60% to 65%, it will be good for BN.
“Due to Covid-19, the turnout for the 2022 state elections was approximately 54%. The Barisan Nasional ended up winning 40 of the 56 contested seats.”
Akbar said state elections and by-elections typically attract fewer voters than general elections because many out-of-town voters prefer to wait for the national vote before returning home to vote.
He also said the recent controversy involving Pakatan Rakyat’s Skudai MP Marina Ibrahim could affect voter turnout.
On May 31, Marina announced that she would not seek re-election and would retire from politics.
A letter she allegedly wrote to DAP state chairman Teo Nie Koon, who declined to run for the South state seat, was later circulated on social media.
The letter said she rejected Teo’s offer to run for the seat, as well as an offer of a position in a government-related company if she failed to win.
In the last state polls, in addition to big-name parties such as Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional, parties such as People’s Party, Warisan, Parti Socialist Malaysia and Parti Putra also participated.
According to the Election Commission, Johor has more than 2.72 million registered voters.
The 16th state election will be held on June 1 after the Johor State Assembly is dissolved on June 1.
