The Tamesis
May 6, 2026
New Delhi – Twelve years ago, the BJP was in power in seven states. Today, it governs 21 countries and leads a coalition responsible for about 72% of India’s 1.4 billion people. No party or alliance in the country has taken such a federal stance since Indira Gandhi’s Congress, and even that comparison comes with a caveat or two.
The May 4 election results are the final piece of a puzzle the party has been putting together for two years. The Trinamool Congress’s historic first victory in West Bengal, where it seemed motionless for a decade and a half, coupled with its third consecutive victory in Assam, took the NDA’s support tally to 21 in the state. That’s the same number it briefly reached in early 2018 before the situation reversed. The difference, party leaders believe, is that this time the base is more stable.
A geography that tells its own story
NDA’s footprint is all over the map and currently covers about 72% of India’s land area. The Ganges flows from its source in the hills of Uttarakhand through Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and finally empties into the sea at Ganga Sagar in West Bengal, flowing entirely through the states governed by the NDA. This is no geographical coincidence. This is the result of ten years of sustained political work.
The party’s expansion since 2014 has followed a clear pattern. It started in the Hindi heartland and then advanced into the Northeast through a combination of alliance and local organizing efforts before steadily extending its influence into states long considered beyond its control. Maharashtra, Odisha and now West Bengal are the clearest examples of how far it has moved away from its original stronghold.
The years that were almost unraveled
The highs of 2018 failed to survive the year. In December of the same year, three states – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh – fell to the Congress party, reducing the number of NDAs to 16 states almost overnight. By 2020, further electoral reversals and the political chaos caused by the pandemic left the alliance governing only 13 states. There is serious talk in political circles that the party is expanding too fast and too weak.
Then comes 2024. The Lok Sabha results showed the BJP with 240 seats compared with 303 in 2019, confirming what the state losses suggested: the party’s dominance is not automatic or permanent. The NDA retained a centrist 293 seats and Narendra Modi began a third term, but the result was a sharp reshuffling of priorities.
What happened next, while less dramatic than the campaign, was arguably more impactful. The party has gone back to basics, strengthening its stall-level presence, focusing on local issues rather than national narratives and strengthening coalition management in states it cannot win alone. Maharashtra, Haryana, Bihar and Odisha are back one by one. By February 2026, the statistical scope covered 19 states and two federal territories. The Bengal and Assam results in May pushed it to the limit.
Indira Gandhi Parallels and Their Limitations
The number 21 is of historical significance. The Congress party under Indira Gandhi ruled a significant number of states at the height of its political authority in the late 1970s, and no party or alliance matched the federal influence in the decades since. so far.
This comparison is reasonable but incomplete. Indira Gandhi’s Congress party maintained its dominance through a centralized, largely uncontroversial party structure. The NDA’s 21 states include several governments that exist only as regional partners: the JD(U) in Bihar, the TDP in Andhra Pradesh, and various northeastern allies in Nagaland and Meghalaya, among others. Fifteen of the 21 states are governed by the BJP alone. The remaining six games need to be held by the league.
The South also continued to resist. Kerala has voted for the Congress-led United Democratic Forces to return to power. Tamil Nadu produced one of the most dramatic election results in years, with actor-politician Vijay’s party emerging as the biggest force, leaving the BJP without a foothold in both states.
What does governing 72% of a country bring?
The scale of the NDA’s federal presence gives it a real policy advantage. Welfare programs, infrastructure decisions, and administrative priorities can be coordinated across India’s vast and largely contiguous territory in a way that is simply not possible with more dispersed political forces. The BJP has shown time and again in different states that it can translate this kind of governance delivery into lasting electoral support.
The risks are also real. 21 states means 21 separate areas of accountability. Voters that reward a party’s apparent performance can also be quick to punish a party’s apparent failure. The experience of 2018 shows that statistics accumulated over the years can disappear in a single election season.
The party dominates India more than any political force in living memory. By any measure, this is an achievement. As was made clear last time, this position demands more than it rewards.
