The Tamesis
The shaky ceasefire between Iran and the United States has had little impact on ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with maritime tracking data showing just ten ships have passed through the key waterway since the ceasefire came into effect.
Iran and the United States said on Wednesday they would reopen the 167-kilometer strait between the Gulf and the Indian Ocean after announcing a two-week truce.
Only four oil tankers and six bulk carriers passed through the strait between the start of the ceasefire and Thursday, according to maritime data provider Kpler.
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Only one of the tankers, the MSG, is not Iranian.
According to MarineTraffic Monitor, the Gabonese-flagged ship was bound for India on Thursday carrying about 7,000 tons of Emirati fuel oil.
In addition to these ten vessels, dozens of other vessels appear to be passing through the waterway, all either coming from or heading to Iran or with links to countries not hostile to Iran. This suggests that there was little real change in traffic conditions before the ceasefire.
Richard Mead, editor-in-chief of shipping magazine Lloyd’s List, said in a briefing that “the strait will remain open or closed” until a ceasefire is planned.
Bridget Diakun, an intelligence analyst at Lloyd’s of London, said traffic over the past week was “90 per cent below normal and driven almost entirely by Iran trade”.
In normal times, the strait handles about a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas, with 100 to 140 ships passing through its waters.
Kpler analyst Ana Subasic said traffic volumes were expected to remain at a maximum of 10 to 15 trips per day “if the ceasefire holds.”
Kpler data shows that between March 1 and April 8, commodity carriers made 315 voyages, 202 of which were oil and gas tankers, most of which were heading east towards the Gulf of Oman. Most of the vessels involved came from or were bound for Iran.
Hundreds of ships trapped
Tehran has been blocking shipping through the strait since last month, a move in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.
More than five weeks after the war began, some 800 ships are still stranded on both sides of the Channel, Lloyd’s News reported. German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd said it would not resume traffic on the route.
As of Tuesday, about 172 million barrels of crude oil and refined products on 187 tankers remained stranded offshore in the region, according to Kpler. The International Energy Agency said the war caused the worst-ever supply disruptions to global oil markets.
Even if the ceasefire holds, many shipowners and shipping associations are unsure whether ships will be able to safely sail from the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
Jakob Larsen, chief security officer of international shipping association BIMCO, told AFP on Wednesday that leaving the Gulf now “would be unwise” without coordinating with the United States and Iran.
Iran announced an alternative route through the strait on Thursday, citing mine risks in key areas of the waterway. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps plotted a route to the vicinity of Iran’s Larak Island.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said ships can only use the strait in cooperation with the Iranian navy, according to intelligence firm Vanguard Tech.
With the exception of three Omani oil tankers that passed near Oman’s coast last week, recent transits have used Iranian-approved routes.
Shipping industry representatives told AFP that some rumors suggest that ships must be on the approved list or countries will be ranked and ships from countries friendly to Iran will receive better conditions.
Potential shipping costs differ between countries
Iran has also talked about plans to establish a toll system to fund reconstruction after large-scale attacks by the United States and Israel.
The payment price is one dollar per barrel of oil, payable in cryptocurrency or yuan, the Financial Times reported.
One of the key points in the ten-point plan Iran sent to Washington to end the war was that Tehran would maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz.
An Iranian diplomatic source told reporters that “there is a new mechanism under which there has been and will be access rights” that will be organized with Oman, which also borders the strait.
Amena Bakr, another analyst at Kpler, said the EU was quick to condemn the idea and that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies would also suffer badly.
“When it comes to Hormuz, the GCC side’s position is very clear … they will not accept Iran controlling the flow,” she said.
“Hormuz is more important than enriching uranium”
Kepler’s Becker also said it’s unclear how such a charge would be determined. But JPMorgan Chase says revenue from such systems could bring Iran $70 billion to $90 billion a year.
Ships are likely to face at least a “slow, opaque verification process and, in many cases, multi-million dollar toll requirements”, Lloyd’s said.
Freedom of circulation is a fundamental principle of maritime law. The only access points with toll booths are the Suez and Panama Canals, both of which are man-made structures that require maintenance.
“Paying tolls legitimizes Iranian coercion and sets a precedent in international law that other regimes may want to follow,” wrote Guntram Wolf, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Brueghel.
U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and Iran could operate the system through a “joint venture.”
But Amir Hanjari, an analyst at the US-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told AFP that the key to the negotiations was that the Strait of Hormuz was “more important to Iran than enriching uranium”.
“This is a real security guarantee against future attacks by Israel and the United States,” he said.
- AFP, with additional editing and input by Vishakha Saxena
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