Who Will Win—and Who Should Win—at the 2026 Oscars

Welcome to the craziest Oscars show in years. With the 2026 Academy Awards just days away, most of the most competitive battles seem to hang on a knife-edge. This is Fashion Decide who will win, who should win and who should be a contender in 13 key categories.

best picture

Will win: sinner
Should win: sinner
Should be a contender: Voice of India Rajab

I don’t want to curse it, but I think it could actually happen: After Ryan Coogler’s vampire saga won an acting award — during the Oscar voting period, it seemed to have gained momentum, and now with one battle after another. Paul Thomas Anderson’s revolutionary epic took home top prizes at the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, the Baftas and the Producers Guild of America Awards – the latter of which, like the Oscars, uses priority voting, meaning it’s often the best indicator of the eventual winner of Best Picture. despite this, sinner The surge here is reminiscent of parasites Back in 2020, when Bong Joon-ho’s dark satire beat out Sam Mendes’ work 1917More traditional establishment contenders came into office at the last minute.

Both movies are worth it but I’d love to see them sinner take it away——war‘s dominance is slowly turning this awards season into a predictable slog, but sinner It has been resurrected. Viola Davis’s ecstasy after handing the Actor Award for Best Actor to Michael B. Jordan? Samuel L. Jackson rejoices in naming sinner Voted Band of the Year? That’s what makes life worth it (awards season). And Oscar night desperately needs that kind of shock, awe, and joy.

As for the conspicuously absent version of this top-10 lineup? Qawther bin Haniya Voice of India RajabCertainly it has weight, importance, resonance, urgency and tear-jerking power, which in my opinion makes it a worthy Best Picture winner.

best director

Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson one battle after another
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson one battle after another
Should be a contender: Jafar Panahi it’s just an accident

war Far from my favorite Paul Thomas Anderson film, but frankly the visionary who made this film is criminal Boogie Nights, drunken love, There will be blood, masterand phantom line Not even an Oscar, let alone this. As was the case the year Christopher Nolan finally won Oppenheimera belated recognition of an unparalleled Hollywood career. In the run-up to it, Anderson was sweeping every directing award (Critics Choice, Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Directors Guild of America), which felt like the only completely safe bet in an unpredictable year.

Ryan Coogler, emotional valueJoachim Trier, HamnetChloé Zhao, and Marty Supre‘s Josh Safdie rounds out the lineup, but it’s just an accidentJafar Panahi also deserves a spot. In this hilarious and heartbreaking Iranian farce, the dissident director distills his painful experience of being imprisoned for “anti-establishment propaganda” into a comedy that’s endlessly surprising, surreal, poignant and thrillingly entertaining. It seems that many Oscar voters – who I suspect may have thought the film was heavier and more serious than it actually was – just didn’t get around to seeing it, which is a real shame. Given that Panahi has now been sentenced to another year in prison, not to mention everything that’s going on in his home country right now, it’s certainly heartening to see him here.