VPD outbreak risks loom as coverage falls below 85%: report

Vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks can be caused by gaps in routine immunization, donor fatigue, and complex programs.

BMI said coverage of key vaccines falling below 85% to 90% could lead to an increase in vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) outbreaks in 2026.

FitchSolutions describes this risk as an “underestimated” risk among other health risks that may occur over the next 12 months.

The report said the outbreak of VPD may be due to persistent gaps in routine immunization, donor fatigue and increased program complexity.

Global coverage of core childhood vaccines, including diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (DTP), remains below pre-COVID levels.

Coverage with vaccines such as DTP, MCV1 (measles) and POL3 (polio) is a key indicator of immune system strength and population protection, with coverage above 85% to 95% generally considered optimal.

BMI said the number of “zero dose” children – those who have not received any essential childhood vaccines – has climbed to 14.3 million, 1.4 million more than before the pandemic.

The report added that the risk of VPD outbreaks is particularly serious in West, Central and East Africa, where immunization rates still lag seriously and large populations remain at risk of potential outbreaks.