The Tamesis
Bangkok – Thailand is increasingly being described as the “sick man of Asia” due to sharp slowdowns in consumption, manufacturing and tourism – trends that are hitting household livelihoods and raising concerns about the country’s stability.
Thailand is grappling with slow economic growth and an economic structure that cannot keep up with today’s development needs. The Ministry of Finance forecasts GDP growth of only 2.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.
In the past five years following the Covid-19 crisis, Thailand’s economic growth has not exceeded 2.6% in 2022. This has left the country lagging behind many regional peers in the post-pandemic recovery. Long-standing structural constraints remain unresolved: the population is declining for the fourth consecutive year, birth rates are at a 75-year low in 2025, household debt is approaching 90% of GDP (one of the highest levels in Asia), and competitiveness is weakening.
In the past, Thailand has successfully shifted from an agricultural economy to an industrial economy, increasing the proportion of industry in GDP and triggering expectations that the country may become a newly industrialized economy. After the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Thailand relied on exports to recover. In 2011, the World Bank classified Thailand as an upper-middle-income country. But that image is fading as long-term problems remain unresolved.
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