The Tamesis
China’s emissions have been on a “flat or declining” trajectory for nearly two years, new research shows, raising hopes that the world’s largest emitter of global warming gases may have finally reached peak carbon emissions.
“If this is China’s peak… this is the climate story so far this century,” wrote Simon Evans, senior policy editor, Carbon Brief Publish analysis.
The study, conducted for Carbon Brief by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), showed that China’s emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025 and by 0.3% for the full year.
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CREA noted that this decline means that China’s emissions have remained flat or declined over the past 21 months due to the boom in renewable energy capacity.
Growth in clean energy has helped China offset carbon emissions from the power sector, which accounts for the largest share of emissions in the country. In fact, the industry’s emissions are expected to fall by 1.5% year-on-year by 2025.
But behind the good news, concerns remain that China’s emissions are still likely to surge again and fall far below Beijing’s previous targets.
Fossil fuel dependence
Key to this concern is China’s continued reliance on fossil fuels to maintain energy security and develop industry.
For example, the country’s fossil fuel emissions will actually grow by 0.1% by 2025. Furthermore, while most major industries, including transport, power, cement and metals, have reduced emissions, the chemical industry remains an outlier due to its overdependence on fossil fuels.
CREA’s Lauri Myllyvirta noted that the industry’s use of coal and oil increased by 15% and 10% respectively.
“Without the growth of the chemical industry, China’s total carbon dioxide emissions are expected to fall by 2%,” he added.
Coal use in China, in particular, remains a big concern. Myllyvirta noted that its coal chemical industry (converting coal into fuels/plastics) is targeting large-scale capacity expansion.
Meanwhile, Beijing continues to add large numbers of coal- and gas-fired power plants despite a surge in clean energy installations.
Christine Shearer, climate and energy analyst at Global Energy Monitor, said: “In 2025 alone, China will bring more coal power capacity into operation than India has put into production in the past decade.” told ABC News earlier this month. Most of the new capacity is expected to come online this year.
Likelihood of emissions peak
The astonishing growth in coal capacity stems in large part from Beijing’s commitment to maintaining energy security for its population of more than 1.4 billion people.
A growing middle class, increasing industrial activity, burgeoning use of artificial intelligence and electric vehicles, and extreme weather related to climate change have been key drivers of electricity demand in China. Charging electric vehicles alone consumes 49% more energy than last year, while power usage for technical services increased by 16%. According to the South China Morning Post.
Meanwhile, Chinese officials have left the door open to increased coal use, proposal Beijing should strive to peak coal consumption in 2027.
If Beijing returns to coal to meet growing electricity demand, it could easily push China’s emissions to new highs, especially since current emissions levels are not far from their peak in 2024.
glimmer of hope
Despite these concerns, Beijing’s sheer strength in producing and using green technologies has the potential to prevent its emissions from growing.
According to CREA’s analysis, China’s new clean energy capacity continues to grow faster than its overall energy demand. Millihuerta said this trend “is a key reason why China’s emissions have remained stable or declined since the beginning of 2024.”
All clean energy sources – including solar, hydro, wind and nuclear – will see strong growth in 2025. CREA said solar power generation increased by 43%. These new projects are expected to promote clean power generation by 2026.
Last year, for the first time, growth in China’s energy storage capacity far exceeded peak electricity demand. “The growth of energy storage could provide China with another way to meet peak loads without relying on adding fossil fuel-based capacity,” Millihuerta said.
Policy actions worth noting
Whether China can truly keep its emissions down will depend entirely on its policy decisions. CREA said the overall direction on these issues may become clear by next month when Beijing presents its 15th five-year plan.
The plan needs to address China’s carbon intensity, which remains 6 percentage points below the 18% target set for 2020-25. Carbon intensity refers to emissions per unit of GDP.
CREA said policymakers need to set a target for a sharp 23% reduction in carbon emissions intensity over the next five years to meet Beijing’s commitments under the Paris Agreement. They need to set limits on the planned expansion of the coal chemical industry.
Prioritizing storage capacity and clean energy growth to mitigate the risk of potential emissions surges will also be key. CREA noted that Chinese policymakers have so far set lower targets in both areas than required.
Another key piece of the puzzle is grid capacity. Solar and wind power has yet to reach its full potential due to grid inefficiencies. CREA notes that this often results in renewable power stations being shut down to prevent grid congestion.
In January, Beijing announced Plans to spend $574 billion Upgrading the grid, but how much of that will be used to increase renewable energy generation capacity remains to be seen.
Much of those investments are expected to focus on Beijing’s push to provide reliable power to the country’s vast network of data centers.
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