Indonesia's ruling coalition defeats opposition

December 2, 2024

The country's largest simultaneous regional chief election is seen as a battle between Prabowo's Revolutionary Party, which leads Kim Jong Un, and former President Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). An extension of the power game between the two countries, which was Jokowi’s political tool before he acquiesced.

Quick counting results from various pollsters showed that PDI-P-backed candidates and some KIM members who decided to form their own coalition for the November 27 local elections were defeated by the ruling alliance.

Significant loss of PDI-P

The People's Democratic Party, now the only de facto opposition party, suffered a crushing defeat in its battle with Jokowi for dominance in Central Java, the party's long-traditional stronghold.

A quick count showed Kim Jong-un's candidate Ahmad Luthfi heading for victory, with nearly 60 percent of the vote, comfortably ahead of his rival PDI-P candidate Andika Andika Perkasa.

Also read: Regional polls help Prabowo tighten his grip on power

Ahmed's likely win comes after weeks of polls showed a tight race between the two candidates, with both Prabowo and Jokowi ultimately backing the former Central Java police chief.

The defeat of Andika, a former Indonesian military commander, in the People's Democratic Party's stronghold marks a further setback for the nationalist People's Democratic Alliance. Party leader Megawati blamed Andika's defeat on “the heavy use of acting regional leaders and rotation of police personnel in order to win the election”.

“Our democracy is in danger of dying because [people in] power is doing everything [to win, including by using] resources and institutions of the country,” Megawati said in a recorded speech posted on PDI-P’s YouTube channel.

“Considering that the Constitutional Court has made an important decision that non-neutral members of the state apparatus can be criminalized, this can no longer go unheeded,” she stressed.

There was another victory for candidates backed by Prabowo and Jokowi in North Sumatra, the largest province outside Java with a population of about 15 million and one of the key pillars of Jokowi's political dynasty.

With the support of Kim Jong Un's political establishment, Jokowi's son-in-law Bobby Nasution, the former mayor of the provincial capital Medan, looks set to defeat the People's Democratic Party (PDI-P) candidate with about 62 percent of the vote , former provincial governor Edy Rahmayadi.

ALSO READ: Preliminary results show Lusfi defeats Andika in Central Java

Golkar, PKS erosion base

In addition to the opposition's loss of base, pro-Prabowo parties that decided to break away from Kim Jong Un and support several of their own regional candidates were also defeated by the Prabowo-Jokowi machine in Wednesday's election.

The professional bloc lost a key election in its stronghold of Banten, with Airin Rachmi Diany, a popular member of the party, winning the election with her party and the People's Democratic Party (PDI-P). ), lost to Andra Soni, the candidate of the coalition led by Gerindra, with nearly 58% of the vote.

Although polls show Airin, a member of the political dynasty of former Banten governor Ratu Atut Chosiyah, who has dominated the province since 2005 and maintained a significant lead for months .

Likewise, the Islamist-based Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) lost provincial gubernatorial elections in Jakarta and West Java and mayoral elections in Depok and Bandung, all of which were the party's traditional strongholds.

PKS candidate Ahmad Syaikhu and Ilham Habibie, son of former president BJ Habibie, lost the West Java governorship race to Dedi Mulyadi and running mate Erwan Setiawan, who ran with strong support from KIM.

ALSO READ: Pramono claims victory in Jakarta but rivals still hoping to reach final

Are Prabowo, Jokowi game changers?

Analysts say the expected results in key provinces reflect the influence of Prabowo and Joko Widodo, particularly through a combination of Jokowi's relatively high approval ratings and Kim Jong Un's grand coalition strategy to win support.

“It turns out that Jokowi’s support and the machinery of Prabowo’s grand coalition had a significant impact on shaping the election results in major provinces,” said Yoe Kenawas, a researcher at Indonesia’s Lombaga Investigation Agency (LSI). express.

Joss noted that this support not only translates into spin-off effects for candidates, but also into “logistics and donor mobilization,” which play a huge role in garnering support for candidates.

In Central Java, Jokowi openly campaigned for his preferred candidate, Ahmed, and played an important role in preventing the HDP-backed candidate Andika from winning the election.

“Jokowi's network [in Central Java] Seems to go all out and work at all costs [to secure victory for his preferred candidate]. Indostrategic political analyst Ahmad Khoirul Umam said Central Java became a gamble and a source of pride for Jokowi and his family.

Furthermore, “dominance [KIM’s] “The political machinery, coupled with the support of Jokowi and Prabowo, sent a strong message to power nodes in Central Java, including logistical donors, to go all out to get Lusfi on board,” said Parama. said Umam, a lecturer at Dina University.

As for why some pro-Prabowo parties lost ground, Jos said there was no single explanation given the more nuanced political dynamics in the regions.

He cited Airin's husband Tb as an example. Chaeri Wardhana was investigated by the Banten prosecutor's office for alleged corruption in the purchase of land for a sports center in the province, one of multiple factors in her defeat.

For his part, Jos said PKR's defeat in the election in its key stronghold could be a sign of grassroots frustration over the party's decision not to support the candidacy of popular former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan. , mistakes made by candidates, unattractive candidate choices.