The Tamesis
The first phase of CAPE will cover approximately 63% of the approximately 53 million import items that have paid IEEPA tariffs. The remaining 37%, including entries marked as settlements, subject to tax refund claims, subject to public protests or otherwise excluded, will be deferred to a later stage with no firm timeline.
Even for eligible entries, CBP commits to a 45-day processing window after the CAPE statement is accepted, meaning payments will not occur immediately. As of March 26, while 26,664 registered importers had completed electronic payment registration (78% of entries by volume), the bulk processing portion of CAPE was only 60% complete.
In other words, uncertainty remains, but it is no longer absolute.
“The approach of Tax Day is a powerful reminder that the government has the ability to provide larger refunds to taxpayers than is currently being requested from CBP,” said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, which represents brands such as Adidas, H&M, Lululemon and Skims. “These refunds need to be returned fully, expeditiously and automatically to the importer of record.”
A market built on uncertainty
A marketplace for claims trading began to take shape last fall, almost as soon as the first lawsuits over IEEPA tariffs began making their way through the courts. According to people familiar with the matter, the offers at the time were highly speculative, with some offers as low as 15 cents. After the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case, prices climbed to 25 to 30 cents. Their support hit 50 cents as oral arguments foreshadowed a possible overturn and rose to 75 cents after the ruling. Today, sellers can expect to receive about 80 cents on the dollar.
In other words, pricing tracks the momentum of the law in near real-time.
One deal currently underway involves approximately $80 million in claims being sold for approximately 79 cents on the dollar, meaning the company has access to approximately $63.2 million in immediate liquidity, illustrating both the size of the market and the financial pressures driving it.
Public companies, however, appear to be mostly sitting on the sidelines. The impact of disclosures—explaining to shareholders why a company accepted a fraction of what they were owed rather than paying the full amount—creates a reputational calculation that many are unwilling to grapple with.
But some private brands in the industry say they have received similar unsolicited offers.
“Even before the Supreme Court ruling, we were contacted multiple times by parties looking to purchase our IEEPA tariff refunds,” said Aaron Sanandres, co-founder and CEO of Untuckit and founder of Definite Articles. “It’s always interesting to understand how the market values these receivables because it gives an indication of when the market expects collection.”
Untuckit has yet to commit to a deal, but Sanandres’ observation captures the core logic of the market: Pricing is more about time than value.
Why is fashion so popular?
The fashion industry’s relative adaptability to claims trading is no accident. For decades, apparel, footwear and accessories brands that ship to major retailers have sold their receivables to factors, third parties that advance cash for future payments. The mechanics are familiar: sell claims immediately and get cash to keep the business afloat.
