The Tamesis
December 24, 2024
Manila – It turns out that Vice President Sara Duterte is indeed a lame carbon copy of her father—a problematic original from the start. Not only did she lack her father's spontaneity and intelligence, she was far from what mathematician Nassim Taleb described as “antifragile.” Her behavior while at the Department of Education and as Vice President of the Philippines caused much controversy, and her trust and approval ratings plummeted, highlighting the absence of the so-called “Teflon effect.”
Popularity is never a perfect indicator of political capital or competence. But for the notorious dynasty from Davao, popularity ratings have always been their main bragging rights. However, Sara Duterte is now starting to struggle even in this sector.
According to the latest Pulse Asia survey conducted from November 26 to December 3, Sara Duterte’s net approval rating is only 22%. As many as 28% of respondents were dissatisfied with her performance, and as many as 22% were undecided. In fact, her barely majority approval rating (50%) is largely due to inelastic support in her home island of Mindanao (80%) and relatively high support among Category E, or the poorest, Filipinos (68%). Her approval rating in the National Capital Region, the seat of power in the country, has now fallen to just 34%, but her approval rating is slightly higher in Luzon (40%).
On a quarterly basis, Duterte's approval rating fell by 10% nationwide and by 20% in the Visayas. Crucially, her support in Mindanao also fell by 13 points, reflecting the potential for a split in the “Solid South” vote base if current trends hold. Her numbers are a far cry from the UniTeam’s heyday, when Sara Duterte enjoyed a commanding majority among all major Mindanao populations and near-universal support.
Back in September, I explained these pages (“Dutetism: A Hoax Revealed?”), after “a series of public relations disasters, followed by even more disastrous performances in multiple legislative hearings,” Sarah How Duterte revealed himself to be a bad copy of her father. In the weeks that followed, she exacerbated the situation by publicly threatening the lives of the president, first lady, and speaker of the House of Representatives.
However, in addition to her personal limitations and poor performance in office, Sara Duterte faces another structural weakness: a lack of “fear factor.”
That he maintained sky-high approval ratings during former President Rodrigo Duterte's devastating rule was only partly a reflection of his showmanship. Yes, Duterte is a master of the “art of budol,” demonstrating strength and capability while gradually igniting democratic institutions and economies.
But Duterte also knows how to scare people. It’s telling that eight out of 10 Filipinos express fear of ending up a victim of extrajudicial killings, according to Social Weather Stations. Duterte’s monopoly on aid funding, coupled with the weaponization of online libel laws during the COVID-19 pandemic, ultimately sealed the deal.
Urban poor Filipinos, who make up the majority of the electorate, are the population hardest hit by extrajudicial killings. In an extensive journal article titled “Fake Support?” Japanese social scientists Yuko Kasuya and Hirofumi Miwa systematically examine how “preference faking” is the best explanation for Duterte's historical support, especially among Class D voters. middle.
As I repeatedly asked pollsters at the time: What was the incentive for respondents to honestly express their dissatisfaction with President Duterte when they had seen their neighbors shot with impunity the other day?
However, Duterte’s loss is not necessarily a gain for the Marcos camp. President Marcos's approval rating is below 50%, extremely low compared to his two predecessors. His cousin, Speaker Martin Romualz, fared even worse, with only a quarter of voters approving of his performance. Overall, what we are witnessing is “mutual destruction” between the country's two most powerful dynasties.
By far the biggest winners are the Tulfo brothers. While Owen and Ben Tulfo are vying for the top spot in next year's Senate race, Sen. Rafi Tulfo has surpassed Sara Duterte in pre-election surveys for the 2028 presidential race. Dutertismo may be on the way out, but Tulfismo is having its moment. In many ways, unabashed populism still seems to be the only game in town.
