The Tamesis
January 30, 2026
Tokyo – High approval ratings for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet appear to be providing motivation for the Liberal Democratic Party’s pursuit of a one-party majority in the House of Representatives elections, according to a Yomiuri Shimbun survey.
The newly formed main opposition centrist Reform Alliance has yet to rebound in support and will work to win over more voters ahead of next month’s election.
The Liberal Democratic Party has supported candidates in 285 single-seat constituencies across the country. Of these candidates, 129 remain in the lead in their constituencies. In total, the Liberal Democrats could win about 200 seats, including in hotly contested contests. The LDP is expected to make gains even in areas where the opposition has dominated in recent times, such as Aichi Prefecture, which has 16 seats, and Hokkaido, where the party won only three of 12 seats in the last election.
The ruling coalition lost its majority in the last lower house election as the LDP was hit by factional politics and a series of money scandals. However, Takaichi’s emergence as leader energized the party.
“Campaign leaflets with the prime minister’s photo were sold out quickly,” said an LDP candidate standing in a constituency in the Tokyo metropolitan area. “The public response is completely different from previous elections.”
A nationwide survey conducted this month by the Yomiuri Shimbun showed Takaichi’s cabinet approval rating at 69%. Most Liberal Democratic Party candidates received more than 50% of cabinet support, which led to an overall increase in their approval ratings.
The LDP’s coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, performed strongly in opinion polls in its home city of Osaka but underperformed in other areas. Some senior members of the JIP ran in close races with LDP candidates.
Opposition parties are at a disadvantage
The CRA, formed this month by Japan’s Cadets and Komeito parties, appears to be in trouble in a large number of constituencies across the country. Of the 200 constituencies where the party went head-to-head with the LDP, CRA candidates prevailed in only eight, while LDP candidates were ahead in 73 contests.
The CRA will be counting on organized support from groups to boost its chances, but it is unclear at this stage how many votes it will receive in single-seat constituencies. The electoral strategy of many of the party’s candidates is to win over the votes of the Japan Federation of Trade Unions (Rengo), which supports the Democratic Party of Japan, and the Komeito support organization Soka Gakkai (Soka Gakkai). However, one veteran candidate admitted, “I don’t know if I’m going to get as many votes as I expect.”
CRA fielded candidates in four single-seat constituencies that Komeito won in the last House of Representatives election. All four candidates are either trailing the LDP candidates or running in a close race with them.
“We have only recently established this party, so getting our name remembered is an urgent issue,” CRA co-leader Yoshihiko Noda told the Yomiuri Shimbun. Noda said he was determined to regain ground in these races.
Contests in approximately 170 constituencies will be contested by candidates from at least two of the following parties: CRA, People’s Democratic Party, Japan Communist Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi. Competition between opposition parties for the same pool of anti-executive votes could work to the LDP’s advantage.
Democrats are expected to win the same number of seats as in the last election. Democratic Progressive Party leader Yuichiro Tamaki said during a lecture tour in Fukuoka that “the government is operating modestly, but if [the LDP] If a majority is won, the voice of the people will once again be ignored. “
The conservative Tri-Provincial Party, which enjoyed a resounding victory in last year’s Senate election, has no clear path to winning any single-seat constituencies in the upcoming election.
