The Tamesis
January 27, 2026
Tokyo – Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet enjoys particularly high support among young voters and independents, but according to recent polls, these groups will not necessarily vote for the LDP in the proportional representation portion of the upcoming lower house election.
A poll conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun showed that 36% of respondents said they would vote for Takaichi-led Liberal Democratic Party in the election. This is lower than the 39% support the party achieved in a survey conducted ahead of the 2024 House of Representatives elections, when it lost a large number of seats.
The poll also found that the newly formed centrist reform alliance of Japan’s Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito also started slowly at 9%.
50% of those who support the current cabinet say they will choose the Liberal Democrats as part of the proportional representation system. A survey conducted immediately after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet took office in October 2024 showed that the number was 56%.
The Liberal Democratic Party’s coalition partner, the Japan Reform Party, received 8% support. Behind the Liberal Democratic Party’s decline seems to be the National Democratic Party and the three provincial parties. Both parties were elected with less than 1% support in the October 2024 polls, but have gained support at 10% and 6% respectively in recent polls.
The latest survey shows that the support rate of Gao City’s cabinet is 79% among people aged 18-39, 75% among people aged 40-59, and 58% among people aged 60 and above. However, only 33% of those in the 18-39 age group chose the LDP as the party in the proportional representation vote, followed by 37% in the 40-59 age group and 60 and above. This suggests that Takaichi’s popularity among the younger generation will not be a driving force for the LDP.
For the CRA, 17% of people aged 60 and over said they would vote for the party in the upcoming election, but only 5% of 40-59 year olds and 3% of 18-39 year olds chose the party.
In the October 2024 survey, the Democratic Party and Komeito’s combined electoral rates among their respective age groups were 21%, 15%, and 11%. The latest survey finds the CRA has little support among working-age voters.
Movements among unaffiliated voters could have a significant impact on the outcome of the upcoming election. Broken down by party, 15% said they would vote for the Liberal Democratic Party, 7% said they would vote for CRA, 6% said they would vote for JIP, and 5% said they would vote for the Japanese Communist Party and Team Mirai. As many as 39% of unaffiliated voters said they had not yet decided which party to vote for.
