The Tamesis
A new study suggests that the art market will enter 2026 in a better mood than it has seen in years. Global Art Market Outlook Report from research firm ArtTactic. After the long hangover from the 2022 peak, confidence is back, but selectively, cautiously, and with clear preferences.
More than half of art market participants expect the market to grow significantly this year compared to last year. Auction sales already reflect this shift: total art sales at major auction houses increased 11% year-on-year in 2025, driven primarily by trophy works and single-owner collections, which ultimately attracted sellers to the sidelines.
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However, the recovery has not been evenly distributed. The strongest confidence is found at the very tops and bottoms of the market. Works priced above $1 million are seeing renewed interest as high-quality supply returns, while works priced under $50,000 benefit from steady activity and broader buyer participation. The mid-range market remains squeezed between these two extremes, with fewer buyers willing to expand.
Auctions are leading the recovery. Most experts expect the secondary market to outperform again in 2026, while the primary market is expected to recover more slowly as galleries remain cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty and uneven collector confidence.
In terms of taste, the message is straightforward. Modern and post-war art are the backbone of the rebound, with demand focused on historically proven artists and museum-quality works. Young contemporary art remains fragile, still dealing with the effects of the speculative excesses and sharp auction pullbacks of the past few years.
The medium is also important. Drawing leads the confidence rankings by a wide margin, followed by works on paper and printmaking. NFTs and AI-generated art are at the bottom, with experts indicating little appetite for another leap of faith after the last cycle.
Geographically, the Middle East is the most optimistic region heading into 2026, supported by continued institutional investment and expanding exhibitions and auctions, headlined by Art Basel Qatar, which opens early next month. Sentiment has improved in parts of the U.S. and Asia, while Europe and the U.K. are expected to post selective gains rather than a full-scale rebound.
The conclusion is simple: the art market is stabilizing rather than rebounding sharply. Buyers want quality, history and credibility. Sellers with the right materials finally have a chance. Others are still waiting.
