The Tamesis
At this conference, the Communist Party of Vietnam will reiterate the ambitious goal of Vietnam becoming a high-income developed country by 2045. The congress, held every five years, will also unveil the new leader of the country of more than 100 million people.
Looking for a successor
In theory, delegates will elect a new Central Committee – the party’s highest authority – with 180 permanent members and 20 alternates, and then vote for a 17- to 19-member all-powerful Politburo and general secretary.
However, Carlisle Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales, said “everything has been set since the end of the 15th plenary session of the Central Committee in December last year, which approved the recommendations of the Politburo Personnel Subcommittee headed by To Lin,” referring to Communist Party of Vietnam General Secretary To Lin.
Lam thanked party members on December 23, 2025, for nominating him and others to the next Central Committee and leadership positions; despite the age limit the party has set for its top leaders, his name was almost at the top of the list.
The police chief, who will turn 69 in July, is already over the mandatory retirement age of 65 and his selection is technically an exemption.
“Is there more than one exception approved by the central government?” Professor Thayer asked, noting that the party’s personnel matters are often confidential.
Some other members of the current Politburo who will also exceed the age limit, such as Defense Minister Ban Van Chiang, who will turn 66 in 2026, may also have a chance to compete for the top job, or at least one of the four “core” positions.
They are known as the “Four Pillars” – the General Secretary, the President, the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the National Assembly.
Professor Thayer explains: “The military was better connected to Vietnamese society (than the police) through a national draft, veterans’ ranks, compulsory defense education in schools and universities, military-run enterprises employing military families, and serving as managers of special defense zones on the border and other remote areas.”
He added that this would help increase General Jiang’s chances.
The current president, Liang Qiang, is a former army general, and some observers believe General Jiang is the successor to the 69-year-old Liang Qiang, who is retiring.
However, there are rumors of merging the positions of party general secretary and state president – a move that would require amending Vietnam’s constitution or approval from the Central Committee and approval from the National Assembly.
Professor Thayer said if the two roles were merged, General Jiang’s chances of becoming president would disappear.
If merged, Mr Lam is expected to hold both positions.
Dr Nguyen Hac Giang, a visiting fellow at the Vietnam Studies Program at the Yusof Issa Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, said that in his view General Giang “is still very much involved”.
“He has just been nominated to run in the National Assembly elections in March 2026, which is a strong indication that he is still among the top candidates,” he noted.
“In essence, General Jiang is a career military officer, so his public persona is more about stability, discipline and defense priorities, whereas Mr Lam is marked by organizational reinvention, a shift to the private sector and a more assertive security-driven systems management approach.”
economic goals
Senior party official and Foreign Minister Le Hoai Trung told foreign diplomats on January 7 that the conference aimed to formulate “comprehensive development goals and directions in all fields for the Vietnamese nation in the new era.”
“A new era of national rise” has become a buzzword and a motto spearheaded by Carrie Lam.
Trump said that nearly 1,600 delegates representing more than 5 million party members will “review and evaluate the innovation process of the last congress over the past 40 years and the implementation of the resolution in the past five years.”
Professor Thayer said that the Party Congress will reaffirm the goal set by the 13th National Congress, which is to “become a developing country with modern industry and upper-middle income level by 2030, and become a high-income developed country by 2045.”
He added that Mr Lam acknowledged that one of Vietnam’s main challenges is to embrace technological advancement to avoid falling into the middle-income trap.
The country’s parliament, or National Assembly, has approved a series of targets for 2026, including economic growth of at least 10 per cent and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of about US$5,500 (S$7,000). Vietnam’s GDP growth rate in 2025 will be 8.02%, and per capita income will be US$5,026.
Despite global economic uncertainty and high U.S. tariffs on Vietnam, its main export market, it plans to achieve double-digit growth between 2026 and 2030.
Mr Lam and some of his comrades, including Prime Minister Pham Minh Trinh, have argued that the private economy is Vietnam’s driving force, but one analyst warned that the party’s modus operandi is still based on collective decision-making.
“The conference is specifically about setting targets to 2030, with key signals pointing to growth ambitions, infrastructure development and a stronger domestic ‘national champion’ agenda,” said Dr Jiang of the Yusof Issa Institute of Southeast Asia. “That said, even a strong leader still has to govern by consensus within the Conservative Party, so the direction is likely to remain pro-growth, but the pace and packaging may be adjusted to keep the coalition together.”
Still, investment in large-scale infrastructure projects has reached political consensus at the top levels and is likely to continue under the next leader, Dr Jiang said.
What to do next?
Following the congress, Vietnam will hold parliamentary elections in March to elect national and government leaders, although it is believed the appointments must first be approved by the party.
Dr Jiang said the new head of government will face the arduous task of maintaining double-digit growth rates.
“This may still be an aspiration in party documents, but a more technocratic successor may place more emphasis on execution capabilities, macro stability and risk management than overall goals,” he told The Straits Times.
In terms of diplomacy, China will continue to pursue “bamboo diplomacy” and maintain neutrality and balance, especially in its relations with global powers such as the United States and China.
Observers say economic development remains a focus of the Communist Party’s agenda because it helps bolster its legitimacy. Political reform seemed impossible.
“After the death of former general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong (in July 2024), the Communist Party implemented many major reform policies,” said Dang Dinh Manh, a dissident lawyer now living in Washington.
“What I most fervently look forward to, however, are political reforms that return power and self-determination to the people and serve as a driving force to help the country develop in all aspects, including its national character,” Mr. Meng said.
“However, I haven’t seen any signs of political reform.”
