The Tamesis
December 5, 2024
Manila – Nomura Securities said political instability resulting from the ongoing feud between President Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte could pose significant economic risks, especially if it leads to poor results in the 2025 midterm elections and disrupting policy continuity.
The Japan Investment Bank cited the Marcos-Duterte conflict as one of several risks facing the economy, including weaker global growth, rising tensions in the West Philippine Sea and soaring oil and food prices.
“Domestically, weak midterm election results for the government and its allies could reignite political risks and the continued intensification of the conflict between President Marcos and Vice President Duterte,” Nomura said.
The alliance once known as the “UniTeam” fell apart after Duterte verbally attacked the president over congressional scrutiny of the vice president's office's use of classified funds. The government's allies took control of the House of Representatives.
READ: Threat with Marcos 'maliciously taken out of context' – Vice President Sara Duterte
The feud escalated after Duterte told a news conference that she had asked someone to kill the president, first lady and speaker if she died. The outburst was cited in the impeachment charges against the vice president by progressive political groups.
All eyes on midterm polls
For now, the economics team said they remained “undeterred by the political noise,” adding that work continued to secure an “A” credit rating for the government and investors would rather focus on reforms.
Anthony Lawrence Borja, a political science professor at De La Salle University, said the breakdown in Marcos' relationship with Duterte could solidify support for government bets during the 2025 midterm elections.
“The power of money and patronage politics is on the side of the government,” Borja said.
“As Sara Duterte's approval ratings decline, these may reduce the negative impact of the fight on the midterm elections and overall support for the government,” he added.
Meanwhile, Nomura believes an electoral victory by Marcos' allies will help the government maintain its economic agenda, including increased spending on infrastructure development.
“Our current view is that President Marcos and his allies are still doing well and are likely to control Congress. This could lead to a widening of the current account deficit as infrastructure spending is President Marcos' top priority,” the bank said express.
