The Tamesis
March 17, 2026
Yangon – Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing appears to be plotting a transition to a nominal civilian government, with analysts saying he may hand over the military’s top job before then Inaugurated as president in late March.
Gen. Ye Win Oo, 60, a former military intelligence chief, was promoted to army chief of staff in early March, replacing Deputy Senior Gen. Soe Win, who retains his position as deputy commander-in-chief of the defense forces.
Analysts interviewed by The Straits Times generally expect that when Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who turns 70 in July, takes office as president after parliament convenes, General Ye Win Oo, a close aide and long-time protégé of the junta leader, will become the next commander-in-chief.
The move would mark the first step in Myanmar’s transition to a nominal civilian government five years after the military seized power in a coup.
The country remains mired in a conflict between the military junta and resistance forces that has killed nearly 93,300 people and displaced 3.7 million since the February 2021 coup, according to the International Crisis Monitoring Group Armed Conflict Location and Event Data and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a human rights group in Myanmar, said the junta has arrested more than 30,600 people since the coup and about 22,500 people remain in detention.
General Ye Win Oo gained notoriety during the coup for allegedly overseeing an interrogation unit accused by human rights groups and former detainees of using torture to obtain information.
Aung Ky, a retired senior military officer who asked not to be named, told The Straits Times that General Ye Win Oo was “not a reformer” and was likely to become a “puppet” of General Min Aung Hlaing.
Naing Min Khant, a researcher at the Myanmar Institute for Strategic and Policy Studies, told “ST” that the history of the two of them can be traced back to the late 1990s and early 2000s, when General Min Aung Hlaing served as the infantry division commander.
As junta leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s circle of trusted allies has shrunk over the past five years.
But an independent adviser on Myanmar, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said junta leaders may view General Ye Win O as the least threat because they have known him for a long time.
“He seemed personally loyal to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing from the beginning, which likely led the senior general to believe that he would not betray him,” Mr Min said.
Mr Min added that Gen Ye Win Oo was also “not seen as a particularly strong battlefield commander” – a quality traditionally valued and respected within the military.
He said: “This arguably makes him less respected by the rank and file, although senior officer colleagues have been more concerned about him in recent years because his intelligence role gives him access to information that can be used against them.”
Onji said that “combat officers were not satisfied with his appointment” and considered him to be just a “paper general” and a “thug” for the junta chief.
If General Min Aung Hlaing does become president, former Thai foreign minister and ambassador Kasit Piromya believes “he will become more entrenched, more assertive and uncompromising”.
In an interview with The Straits Times in Bangkok, he urged the international community not to normalize relations with Myanmar’s military while the country remains mired in civil war.
In recent months, the junta has sought to legitimize its presence.
From December 2025 to January 2026, the military government will hold elections in three phases. The polls have been criticized by the international community as “neither free nor fair” because they exclude large parts of the population, territories and political factions.
The junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party was declared the “landslide” winner. However, ASEAN has stated Not recognizing the election results Currently, following Member States Unable to reach consensus.
Nonetheless, the military will reconvene the bicameral National Assembly – which has 440 seats The House of Commons will meet on March 16 and the 224-seat upper house on March 18. Local state and district council meetings will begin on March 20.
According to the Constitution, 25% of seats in each chamber are reserved for unelected military representatives. When Parliament convenes, Lawmakers are likely to nominate presidential candidates from the lower house, upper house and military blocs by the end of March.
However, despite attempts by junta leaders to restore parliamentary proceedings and plans for a return to normalcy, observers expect little change in ongoing violence between the army, ethnic armies and civilian resistance. Ethnic military forces and opposition civilian resistance forces said to control at least 40% of the territory also refused to talk to the military, which is still carrying out airstrikes.
To maintain control of the country, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing established the Federal Consultative Council in February, which has broad powers to oversee the military and state administration.
It is unclear who will serve on the committee, but many believe Senior General Min Aung Hlaing will retain full control if he becomes president.
“It is unrealistic to expect that this new institutional arrangement will bring about a true democratic transition,” said Naing Min Khant, a researcher at the think tank.
“This is just the status quo maintained under the iron-fisted rule of Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.”
