2025, the Year No One Could Figure Out the Art Market 

In the post-Covid world, time has become a strange and elastic thing. Since President Donald Trump was re-inaugurated on Jan. 20, his administration has “flooded the region” with executive orders, outlandish statements and social media posts that are both offensive and off-topic. The cumulative result is that each week of the year seems to last an eternity, even an eternity for some.

Therefore, looking back to 2025 and summarizing what is happening in the art market is very challenging. With so many mixed, contrasting, and difficult-to-interpret signals, the most accurate statement may be to quote Talking Heads: This is the year the art market no longer makes sense.

“Everyone has a slightly different perspective,” says Natasha Degen, chair of art market studies at the Fashion Institute of Technology in New York and director of Sotheby’s Institute’s New York campus in January. That’s an understatement. Last November, gray market columnist Tim Schneider even diagnosed a metaphorical case of body dysmorphia among art market observers, saying it was difficult to accurately interpret its shape and size.

Let’s take a look back at some of the high and low moments to see what we have in store for the year.

Shows, auctions and tariffs provide different signals

After years of market downturn, the first big indicator this year was Frieze Los Angeles art fair in February, with many dealers reporting sellouts. art news The top 200 collectors were in attendance, with sales at galleries including Gladstone, Michael Rosenfeld and David Zwirner all surpassing the $1 million mark, giving the area a profound boost in the wake of wildfires that devastated parts of the city.

But when Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on America’s three largest trading partners, Canada, Mexico, and China, not only did the mood of the art market change dramatically, but so did the entire economy over the next month. “The market has really been teetering on the edge,” Degen said. “It seems to have sucked all the oxygen away and made people feel quite pessimistic.” Later that month, reports of Art Basel in Hong Kong were decidedly mixed. Even major global galleries like White Cube note that collectors are “more conservative and more selective than in previous years.”

But Degan noted that March nonetheless marked a high point, recalling the record-breaking $13.8 million sale of a painting by Indian artist MF Husain that set a new high for modern Indian art.

In April, the overall outlook worsened as Trump announced new tariffs on every country on the planet, including some uninhabited islands. However, at the Frieze Art Fair in New York in May, Gagosian brought three of Jeff Koons’ Incredible Hulk sculptures, which were rumored to be on sale for $3 million. Galleries across the board reported strong sales. In addition, Art Basel saw the need to expand and announced that it will host Art Basel Qatar in February 2026.

Just a few blocks from Frieze’s home on the Shed, May’s big sale took another dramatic turn, failing to live up to even modest expectations: While auction houses expected the art to fetch $1.6 billion, it sold for just $837.5 million. Top prices were not as high as in previous years, and wet paintings by emerging artists underperformed.

Despite the pessimism, dealers are expressing some confidence ahead of Art Basel in Switzerland in June. Pace even promoted a $30 million Pablo Picasso. Is this optimism worth it? Maybe not so much. according to art newsPublicly reported sales are down more than 35% from 2024, according to an analysis of sales reports from five blue-chip galleries at Swiss fairs.

Death Watch Gallery

In July, international distributor Tim Blum revealed art news When he decided to “shut down” his gallery, it began a six-month campaign of galleries large and small announcing closures or downsizing. There was a farewell “seemingly every week,” Degen recalled.

“The shutdown does indicate something structural,” Degen argued. “Costs have become very high, including fixed costs such as rent, wages, etc., and some galleries have expanded or overextended. There are larger structural issues underlying the gallery model, period, and whether the long-term ecosystem can maintain its current form.”

New York private dealer Peter Bentley Brandt says remaining galleries must face current reality art news. “How many galleries are offering a 20% discount (as opposed to 10%) and offering relaxed payment terms?” said Brandt, who worked at White Cube for eight years before working in private sales at Sotheby’s. Brandt, who now heads Ares Art Management, said even if the market looks successful, there’s still a lot of debate in getting there: “Sellers are getting the right numbers to get people to keep buying.”

Degen also noted that there are silver linings as well as dark clouds, noting that Sotheby’s Paris auction house sold the first Hermès Birkin bag for a record $10 million as a sign that auction houses may no longer value art. “This sale seems to be a sign that this will become a big strategy for auction houses as the art market slows down,” she said.

According to reports, in fact, the rise of luxury goods at auction houses is a major event for Christie’s and Sotheby’s this year. art newsGeorge Nelson in August.

Back-to-school season brings new energy

Another shift was the Armory Show in New York in September, which was met with cautious optimism and Sotheby’s London’s sale of the collection of British socialite and art patron Pauline Karpidas, which was a huge success, surpassing its high estimate of $53 million and ultimately selling for $100 million, with all the lots finding buyers. At the Frieze London show in October, dealers reported strong sales.

This was followed in October by the third edition of Art Basel Paris. The general consensus is that a shift occurred between June’s Art Basel and the fair in the French capital. Paris consultant Francesca Napoli told art news It was “the most successful Art Basel Paris show to date,” with eight-figure sales.

Speaking of the appeal of the Paris Exposition, Brandt said, “Honestly, I believe that, yes, a big part of it is shopping and restaurants, but also the exhibitions that the Fondation Louis Vuitton does that no other museum can match. With these blockbusters, people are afraid of missing out. They are a real catalyst for people to go to Paris.”

October brought further signs of confidence, particularly in the Middle East, with Frieze announcing that it would host the Abu Dhabi Expo in November 2026. Degen recalls another high point in October, when approx. A 1575-80 painting by a famous painter from the Mughal court sold for 12 times more than £8.5 million ($11.2 million) at Christie’s in London. By contrast, large galleries such as Hauser & Wirth and David Zwirner have seen profits plummet in the UK.

New York auctions continued to show signs of strength in November. Sotheby’s sells Gustav Klimt work at first sale at its newly acquired Madison Avenue headquarters, the Breuer Building portrait of elizabeth lederer (1914-16) sold for $236.4 million, the highest price ever paid for a work of modern art and the second-highest price ever paid for an art auction. The same property set a female auction record for a Frida Kahlo work, selling for $54.7 million. Great estate comes to the market at New York auction. In addition to the Leonard A. Lauder collection, of which three Klimts works have been sold, there are Las Vegas-based Elaine Wynn, Chicagoans Cindy and Jay Pritzker, Stefan Edlis and Gael Neeson. of the estate, which all shows confidence in demand, which will surely be realized. The homes saw low withdrawals, sold at high rates and saw active bidding during a hot sales week, generating $2.2 billion in revenue.

“There’s been a huge shift, with collectors returning to modern pieces,” Brandt said. “In this economy, it’s like buying the S&P 500.”

“Market morale has been low for some time and November’s sales provided a much-needed boost,” Degen said.

At the same time, Degen noted that top-line results should be taken with a grain of salt. “Sotheby’s needs a win, and they’re willing to make concessions in order to achieve that, so you never know how profitable these sales can be,” she said, referring to the Lauder sale and other single-owner sales. House certainly needs PR win; autumn auction comes just months after a disaster new yorker Exposing reports claim billionaire owner Patrick Drahi has “brought chaos and trouble” to the auction house. In September, the company reported a pretax loss of approximately $248 million in 2024.

As for an auctioneer taking over a building purpose-built for the Whitney Museum that later became an outpost of the Metropolitan Museum of Art and temporary home to the Frick Collection, Degen said, “There was vitriol from some in the art world, although from a publicity perspective it was a huge win for the broader public, and it was a real coup for Sotheby’s.” Ultimately, she added, “I would much rather it be a Sotheby’s auction house than a luxury apartment or a Porsche showroom.”

The good vibes of November carried over to December’s Art Basel Miami Beach, where major galleries sold millions of dollars’ worth of works during their opening hours.

“People spend money in Miami,” Brandt said. “Everyone is very happy with the results.”

At the end of this year, Christie’s expects global sales to reach US$6.2 billion, an increase of nearly 7% from last year’s US$5.8 billion; Sotheby’s expects consolidated sales to reach US$7 billion in 2025, an increase of 17% from last year, the strongest performance in the company’s history.

Still, Brandt said, “What caught my attention was a general fatigue. I’m usually in New York in May and November. Everybody comes to town — and this November, no one came. They told me, ‘Peter, we can’t keep going.'” People were tired of the constant competition. Of course, Brandt remembers many dealers complaining about the art world’s packed schedules during the Covid-19 slowdown. Soon after, he noted, “they were back to where they were. ”

After all, in a year that started with Los Angeles’ post-fire success, downturn and gallery closings and ended with upbeat reports from auction houses, what will happen in 2026? From Doha in February to Miami in December, art news We’ll be there, trying our best to make sense of it all.